Notes on Model Runs 1, 2, 3, 5, & 6

 

Model Run 1

ADCIRC Simulation Lili 1 was completed using meteo
information from the Unisys web site posted as of 10-01-12Z
This was the measured historical track combined with the concensus forecast.
Max velocities to pressures for the forecast track were estimated
using vmax=14*(1013-pcenter)**0.5 (wind speed knots and pressure mb).

The hurricane wind/presure simulator used was PBL using the specified
track information.

Results of the flc formatted movie and max surge height during the event
are in meters. Results of the plotted hydrographs are in feet NGVD.
Note that no tides are steric effects have been added. Steric effects
during fall can add another 1.0 to 1.5 feet. Also local subsidence
has not been accounted for. Therefore surge forcasts should be considered
as additional water level change due to storm effects.

Model Run 2

ADCIRC Simulation Lili 2 was completed using meteo
information from the Unisys web site posted as of 10-02-00Z
This was the measured historical track combined with the concensus forecast.
Max velocities to pressures for the forecast track were estimated
using vmax=14*(1013-pcenter)**0.5 (wind speed knots and pressure mb).

The hurricane wind/presure simulator used was PBL using the specified
track information.

Results of the flc formatted movie and max surge height during the event
are in meters.
Results of the flc formatted movie and max surge height during the event
are also plotted in feet NGVD.

Results of the plotted hydrographs are in feet NGVD.

Note that no tides are steric effects have been added. Steric effects
during fall can add another 1.0 to 1.5 feet. Also local subsidence
has not been accounted for. Therefore surge forcasts should be considered
as additional water level change due to storm effects.

Times for the flc movie file are indicated in Zulu time. Hydrographs are plotted
in local time.

Model Run 3

ADCIRC Simulation Lili 3 was completed using meteo
information from the Unisys web site posted as of 10-02-12Z
This was the measured historical track combined with the concensus forecast.
Max velocities to pressures for the forecast track were estimated
using vmax=14*(1013-pcenter)**0.5 (wind speed knots and pressure mb).

The hurricane wind/presure simulator used was PBL using the specified
track information.

Results of the flc formatted movie and max surge height during the event
are in meters.
Results of the flc formatted movie and max surge height during the event
are also plotted in feet NGVD.

Results of the plotted hydrographs are in feet NGVD.

Note that no tides are steric effects have been added. Steric effects
during fall can add another 1.0 to 1.5 feet. Also local subsidence
has not been accounted for. Therefore surge forcasts should be considered
as additional water level change due to storm effects.

Times for the flc movie file are indicated in Zulu time. Hydrographs are plotted
in local time.

Model Run 5

ADCIRC Simulation Lili 5 was completed using meteo
information from the Unisys web site posted as of 10/02/18Z
This was the measured historical track combined with the concensus forecast.
Max velocities to pressures for the forecast track were estimated
using vmax=14*(1013-pcenter)**0.5 (wind speed knots and pressure mb).

The hurricane wind/presure simulator used was PBL using the specified
track information.

Results of the flc formatted movie and max surge height during the event
are in meters.
Results of the flc formatted movie and max surge height during the event
are also plotted in feet NGVD.

Results of the plotted hydrographs are in feet NGVD.

Note that no tides are steric effects have been added. Steric effects
during fall can add another 1.0 to 1.5 feet. Also local subsidence
has not been accounted for. Therefore surge forcasts should be considered
as additional water level change due to storm effects.

Times for the flc movie file are indicated in Zulu time. Hydrographs are plotted
in local time.

NOTE 10/03/14Z jjw - Current measurements indicate that the pressures applied
in the forcast portion of the meteo are too low. Thus the PBL model winds will
be above actual and surge will be predicted on the high side. Furthermore the meteo
forecast had the storm sustaining higher winds longer than in the current 10/03/09Z
forecast and traveling at a lower forward speed. Again this implies that the surge
prediction in run 5 will be higher than actual.

Model Run 6

ADCIRC Simulation Lili 6 was completed using meteo
information from the Unisys web site posted as of 10-03-06Z in
addition to meteo forecast from the LSU Hurricane Center.
This was the measured historical track combined with the adjusted
concensus forecast by the LSU Hurricane center.
Max velocities to pressures for the forecast track were estimated
using vmax=14*(1013-pcenter)**0.5 (wind speed knots and pressure mb)
although pressures were raised somewhat to concur with the storm as it was
evelving (i.e. formula pressures were lower than measured values for
given wind speeds).

The hurricane wind/presure simulator used was PBL using the specified
track information.

Results of the flc formatted movie and max surge height during the event
are in meters.
Results of the flc formatted movie and max surge height during the event
are also plotted in feet NGVD.

Results of the plotted hydrographs are in feet NGVD.

Note that no tides are steric effects have been added. Steric effects
during fall can add another 1.0 to 1.5 feet. Also local subsidence
has not been accounted for. Therefore surge forcasts should be considered
as additional water level change due to storm effects.

Times for the flc movie file are indicated in Zulu time. Hydrographs are plotted
in local time.

NOTE 10/03/18Z jjw - Current measurements indicate that the pressures applied
in the forcast portion of the meteo are too low. Thus the PBL model winds will
be above actual and surge will be predicted on the high side. Furthermore the meteo
forecast had the storm sustaining higher winds longer than in the meteo in the ADCIRC Run 6
forecast and traveling at a lower forward speed. Again this implies that the surge
prediction in run 6 will be higher than actual.